It somehow feels "wrong" to say that it has been fascinating to watch the unfolding of the drama of hurricane Katrina. The devastation is truly beyond our ability to comprehend and it seems like we will be dealing with the aftermath of the destruction on so many levels for so long that it will probably come to be known as the time before and after Katrina (much in the same way we discuss pre- and post-September 11).
Even so, as I have watched and read and reflected, I have been amazed at the way we so quickly moved into the blame game. There is no question that there is enough of it to go around and still have some left over. People and institutions from the local to the federal level charged with the responsibility of anticipating and responding to such possible scenarios dropped the ball on so many levels that it is going to take a significant amount of time to untangle it, likely assign blame for it, but hopefully (and finally) learn something from it.
I think the blame thing is a bit premature, though. Accountability is necessary, to be sure, and like I said post-disaster analysis will trace all the different junctures where systems broke-down. But what I have noticed as surprisingly absent is any sense of the staggering complexity of this disaster and how many different things were in play that ultimately led to this outcome. It is a complex situation. Complexity theory and complex system dynamics are something that pique my interest pretty regulary. And as I watched this complex drama enacted in front of me, I remember a book I read four or five years ago dealing with this subject.
The book is called The Logic of Failure by Dietrich Dorner. Originally published in Germany in 1989, it was reprinted in the United States in English in 1986. Here's a quote from the introduction of the book.
Failure does not strike like a bolt from the blue; it develops gradually according to its own logic. As we watch individuals attempt to solve problems, we will see that complicated situations seem to elicit habits of thought that set failure in motion from the beginning. From that point, the continuing complexity of the task and the growing apprehension of failure encourage methods of decision making that make failure even more likely and then inevitable. We can learn, however. People court failure in predictable ways.
He then goes on to demonstrate that failure has a consistent logic to it. Using examples like the nuclear disaster in Chernobyl and famine scenarios in sub-Saharan Africa, Dorner builds a fascinating argument about how failure progresses logically until it becomes inevitable. He goes on to say that these (and other) situations have much in common when we look beyond the peculiarities of each. The interrelated variables are:
- Complexity: The existence of many interdependent variables in a given situation. The more variables and the greater their interdependence, the greater that system's complexity.
- Intransparence: One cannot see everything one would like to see. Leaders must make decisions affecting a system whose momentary features they can see only partially, unclearly, in blurred and shadowy outline - or possibly not at all.
- Internal Dynamics: All situations develop independent of external control, according to their own internal dynamic. They move on their own, whether the players take that movement into account or not. Reality is not passive but - to some degree - active. This fact creates time pressure.
- Incomplete or Incorrect Understanding of the System: People attempt to solve problems in these systems without fully understanding the systems; indeed, they make false assumptions. If we want to operate within a complex and dynamic system, we have to know not only what its current status is but what its status will be or could be in the future, and we have to know how certain actions we take will influence the situation.
Anyway, that is just a sample of the fascinating science and research behind complex system analysis and a simple cursory reading of what I shared here. It also helps to understand some of the dynamics that have been in play in the days both leading up to and following hurricane Katrina. Unfortunately (if understatement is permitted), such failure has dramatic impact as we have seen in Chernobyl and now the gulf coast.
I am having a bit of a weird deja vu. Or something. Maybe it is a blending of fiction and reality. Whatever. Last night I watched the season premier of Lost, a story about a group of people who lose their way over the Pacific Ocean and crash land on a mysterious island thousands of miles off-course.
And can I say, briefly, "holy cow." Could that season premier have been any better? If you have any comments about the season premier, put them on the previous post. I would love to hear your thoughts and/or reactions. It used to be that I could care less about TV network programming but now I am having a hard time limiting myself from all the great television shows being written and produced. And speaking of watching television last night...
I am watching CNN last night and see the unfolding drama of the Jet Blue airline whose landing gear malfunctions immediately after take-off and who after flying around in circles for three hours trying to see if they can fix in air, decide to crash land the plane. That pilot was amazing. Watching that plane land, seeing the pilot oh so gingerly set down the front-end, seeing the tires heat up, then burst into flame and dissolve, finally coming to a halt...wow.
I hope this guy pilot is typical of general pilot expertise, because...
Here I am at 9:22 a.m. on a Frontier airplane on my way to Denver. My wife is asleep next to me and I am getting a bunch of tasks done in a shortened work-week. We are going out to Colorado for a wedding. My friend Chris Jehle's younger brother Alex (who I have known since he was a fifth grader and I was a "sevie") is getting married deep in the mountains. We will be on a 4000 acre ranch outside of Estes Park called The Devil's Thumb. Today we will tool around Denver a bit, visiting old haunts and then later catching up with some old friends for whom this brief reunion is too long in the making. In the morning we will pick up a couple of folks at DIA and go up into the hills. I am really looking forward to this week-end.
And if you are reading this on my blog, it means we have landed safely and are not stranded somewhere in the south Pacific, nor sitting on a tarmac with our wheels scraped off. Wait, what is the weird music? Are those vibrations I feel? Who is that woman sitting handcuffed the next seat over? What is tha..........
After months of conceptualizing, designing, planning and working, 
I have been making my way slowly through 
Recent Comments